Planning Fallacy Cognitive Bias

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Bella Matias Prof. Figueroa Critical Thinking Analytical Paper: on a chosen cognitive bias, based on two selected scholarly articles. Scholarly Articles: * “How Long Will It Take? – Power Biases Time Prediction” -Weick and Guinote. * “The Planning Fallacy: Cognitive, Motivational, and Social Origins” – Buehler, Griffin, & Peetz. In receiving this assignment I wanted to explore, learn and write about something that very directly affects, and hinders me. My biggest reoccurring issue presently in my life, having real impact and consequences; is my underestimation of how long it will take me to complete a task. Lo and behold there is a cognitive bias addressing this tendency, this bias is known as the planning fallacy. First defined in 1976 by Kahneman and Tversky as people’s tendency to underestimate the time required to complete a project, even when they have considerable experience of past failures to live up to planned schedules. Kahneman and Tversky came up with a model meant to display and also assist one in de-biasing this cognitive process. The model was termed ‘The inside-outside model’; this model was displaying the two trains of the thought one could take when planning and estimating time task completions. The inside view was what individuals typically use. With the inside view, they plan what they have to do; envisioning the scenario of their plans in their head. When planning and envisioning, human beings typically envision best case scenarios, not leaving room for contingencies, and more over it seems are in considerable denial. Regardless of past failed attempts to complete similar tasks in such short times, individuals consistently underestimate their time completion. The desire to achieve their goals, superseded their recognition of logic; and individuals choose to deny evidence contrary to their goal achievement. The

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