Economic Data and Signals

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“Economic data and the signals they contain are central to business conditions analysis.” Economists spend much of their time gathering, interpreting, and manipulating macroeconomic data. This is important because the data they obtain provides signals which are used to predict what will happen in the trade over a set period of time. Signals are divided into two categories that economists focus on, and they are direct and indirect signals. There is a difference between direct and indirect signals. Direct signals are signals that are measurable in terms of validity and reliability. The conclusion is then derived based on precise information. An example of a direct signal is, when the government of Bahrain decides to increase salaries in the public sector by 25% and encourages the private sector to increase their salaries as well. An increase in salaries will boost the confidence of business owners regarding their sales, since more income increases a person’s will to spend, and money will be circulated more frequently. Therefore, this means that the average Bahraini disposable income will significantly increase, hence, they will increase spending on goods and services. An increase in salaries is therefore a direct signal interpreted by businesses to consider in planning their business offerings. A salary increase might also affect the banking sector, as savings may increase, resulting in extra liquidity with the banks, which is then channeled back through consumer loans or financing facilities for the business sector. Indirect signals are causal in terms of not being precisely valid and reliable. An economist will create a conclusion based on a certain observation that has a relation to the other. An example of an indirect signal is an unexplainable occurrence of when a person enters an empty retail store, expecting to get the sales person’s full attention to

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