International Financial Management - Chapter 9

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Chapter 9: Forecasting Exchange Rates Small Business Dilemma Exchange Rate Forecasting by the Sports Exports Company 1. Explain how Logan can use technical forecasting to forecast the future value of the pound. Based on the information provided, do you think that a technical forecast will predict future appreciation or depreciation in the pound? Logan can apply the technical forecastby reviewing historical values of the British pound to forecast the future values as a continuation of a recent trend that has been detected. As the historical trend shows a consistent upward trend in the pound’s value, therefore it is believed the technical forecast would likely reflect appreciation of the pound. 2. Explain how Logan can use fundamental forecasting to forecast the future value of the pound. Based on the information provided, do you think that a fundamental forecast will predict appreciation or depreciation in the pound? To use fundamental forecasting, firstly, Logan has to develop a model to determinethe economic variables and how they impact the pound’s value. Subsequently, Logan could forecast the future value of the pound by using the information along with forecasts of the economic variables. It is believed the fundamental forecast would reflect depreciation of the pound. This is because the pound depreciated when British inflation was high in the past andLogan expects British inflation to be high in the future as well. Therefore, based on the forecast of this economic variable and the relationship between inflation and the pound’s value, the pound would be expected to depreciate. 3. Explain how Logan can use a market-based forecast to forecast the future value of the pound. Do you think the market-based forecast will predict appreciation, depreciation, or no change in the value of the pound? Jim could use either the spot rate or forward rate

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