Analysis 18 4 North South Petrol

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Assignment 18.4 South Petrol and North Petrol Topic: Comparative comprehensive financial statement analysis Level of difficulty: High In this case, the issue is essentially to decide which of the two firms is the better investment for a generic investor, assuming he likes the risk-class of these two firms. In the analysis, we will structure the ratios (see the Excel spreadsheet) in 4 categories (the value of a firm is the NPV of its future cash flows, thus these metrics are driving future value): Indicators of growth potential (as far as can be determined from financial statements) – it is obvious that a market analysis, beyond the data of the case, would enrich the perspective; Indicators pertaining to the efficiency of the business model in using its resources; Indicators pertaining to longevity of the firm; Indicators pertaining to financing policy. - All four categories will then be reviewed in the perspective of what they indicate about the risk management of the firm. Elements pertaining to growth: South Petrol appears to be growing much faster than North Petrol. North is well established and has a significant market share; South is a in a booming economy and not surprisingly sees it sales growing at a faster pace than North does. However it is important to take the price effect out of the calculation: Average price of a barrel of oil (in CU) Total revenue South Petrol Normalized revenue (in volume) Growth rate Total revenue North Petrol Normalized revenue (in volume) Growth rate Period X3 100 114,483,573 1,144,836 -9.3% 404,552,000 4,045,520 -25.0% Period X2 70 88,326,980 1,261,814 12.4% 377,635,000 5,394,786 -11.2% Period X1 61 68,476,396 1,122,564 370,680,000 6,076,721 This gives us a very different view of the situation: North is losing ground in physical terms, losing 11 and 25% in the period concerned for a net loss of about one third. South on
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