Mat 540 Week 3 Assignment

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Assignment 1 | st114554 | Anuj Shrestha 4.9 a) & b) Month Price per Chip ($) 2-Month Moving Average |Ai - Fi| 3-Month Moving Average |Ai - Fi| January 1.80 February 1.67 March 1.70 1.74 0.03 April 1.85 1.69 0.17 1.72 0.13 May 1.90 1.78 0.13 1.74 0.16 June 1.87 1.88 0.00 1.82 0.05 July 1.80 1.89 0.09 1.87 0.07 August 1.83 1.84 0.00 1.86 0.03 September 1.70 1.82 0.12 1.83 0.13 October 1.65 1.77 0.12 1.78 0.13 November 1.70 1.68 0.03 1.73 0.03 December 1.75 1.68 0.08 1.68 0.07 MAD= (∑ |actual - forecast|)/n 0.08 0.09 c) From the above table, the MAD for 2 month moving average is less than that of the 3 month moving average.…show more content…
Therefore, we will use the least squares method to forecast the total demand for Year 6. Year Time Period (X) Actual Demand (Y) X² XY 1 1 29579 1 29579 2 2 32446 4 64892 3 3 36892 9 110676 4 4 40368 16 161472 5 5 44633 25 223165 ΣX = 15 ΣY = 183918 ΣX² = 55 ΣXY = 589784 X‾ = 3 Ῡ = 36783.6 nX‾Ῡ = 551754 nX‾² = 45 b = (∑XY - nX‾Ῡ)/(ΣX² - nX‾²)= 3803 a = Ῡ - bX‾= 25374.6 Therefore; Total forecast for Year 6, Ŷ = a + bX= 48192.6 (‘000 liters) Sales Data (‘1000 liters) Year 1 % Year 2 % Year 3 % Year 4 % Year 5 % Average % Seasonal Distribution for Year 6 6.24 6.69 6.16 6.96 7.10 6.63 3195.55 8.07 7.70 8.26 7.90 7.83 7.95 3832.70 9.28 8.89 9.19 9.20 9.47 9.21 4437.18 10.11 9.65 10.34 10.14 10.11 10.07 4852.52 9.61 9.35 9.34 9.98 9.64 9.59 4619.41 9.68 9.92 9.83 9.35 9.52 9.66 4655.88 9.56 9.31 9.35 9.30 9.44 9.39 4526.52 9.42 9.06 8.63

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