Northern Ireland- Ripeness And Adaptaition Theory

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This paper will examine the severe events 1972 in history of Northern Ireland conflict through the Ripeness and Adaptation theories. The theory of Ripeness is intended to explain why and when parties to a conflict are willing to turn the conflict towards a resolution through negotiation, rather than finding the resolution to the conflict. The idea behind the concept is that the parties find themselves in deadlock situation perceived as an impossible situation, from which they cannot escalate to victory. According to this theory, parties resolve their conflict only when they are ready to do so. The concept of a ripe moment centers on the parties' perception of a Mutually Hurting Stalemate (MHS), which is based on cost-benefit analysis, associated with an impending, past or recent catastrophe (usually a significant condition is brutal violence). The other important element, necessary for a ripe moment is the perception of a Way Out. Without a sense of a Way Out, the push associated with the MHS would leave the parties with nowhere to go, and without a way to utilize the drive associated with MHS, toward finding a solution. Recognizing a ripe are is very challenging, thus, not all ripe moments are seized and turned into negotiations. Therefore, there is a need for research and intelligence studies to identify the objective and subjective elements, which can assist in identifying ripe moments, in the future (Zartman, 2000). Adaptation is a cognitive process in which desicionmakers perceive their conflict environment differently and decide to change their policy and behavior in response to new events, toward conflict reduction and resolution, but does not involve a change of attitudes, beliefs, and values. Adaptation involves a realization that a previous set of measures or strategies are no longer effective in attaining one's aims and although the ultimate goal remains

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