Duverger's Law Case Study

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PART I – THE THEORIES 1. ELECTORAL RULES AND PARTY STRUCTURE 1.1 Duverger’s Law(s) and its legacy One of the most famous and broadly known studies of factors in party systems is Duverger (1946), in particular about the determinants of two-party and multiparty systems. Three are the sociological laws he enunciated. A majority rule applied to a one ballot framework induces a two-party system. On the contrary, proportional representation (PR) induces a multiparty system, whereas a majority rule on two ballots induces a multiparty systems likely disposed to form coalitions. The first scenario incentivizes similar parties to merge in order to maximize their chances to win. In fact, nonproportional representation and polarization are endemic…show more content…
It is in fact possible to identify three different behaviours of the voters. Sincere voters cast their ballot for their most preferred party or candidate, not considering its chances to actually win the election (or a seat at least). Sophisticated ones base their votes on the expected utility according to a party or a candidate and its probability of success. Sophisticated voters usually pay attention to previous elections and surveys. The third type of voters is the one voting for the frontrunner, according to previous elections or polls. This is referred to as the bandwagon phenomenon. Hix et al. (2014) show that district magnitude influence the constituents through both a mechanical and psychological effect. Mechanically, an increase in magnitude increases the amount of voter for whom sincere and sophisticated behaviours coincide. Psychologically, higher magnitude corresponds to more complicated circumstances: studies in cognitive psychology showed that an individual’s ability of ranking different alternatives consistently decreases when the options are 7 or more (Miller, 1956), and this happens with respect to political candidates or parties too. In the experimental framework of increasing magnitudes they tested, individuals keep voting sophisticatedly even under higher magnitudes and thus less conflict between strategy and sincerity. More precisely, these voters cast their ballots on the frontrunner. Sincere and sophisticated behaviours should both increase with magnitude if only the mechanical effect occurs. The irrationality of the bandwagon phenomenon must be partially caused by the increased complexity, that means by a psychological
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