Could the Boscastle Flood Have Been Predicted and Would a Prediction Have Reduced the Impact?

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Could the Boscastle flood have been predicted and would a prediction have reduced the impact? Boscastle is a quiet village and fishing port on the north cost of Cornwall with beautiful scenery built at the confluence of the valency and Jordan Rivers. At 12:15 it was a dry day in Boscastle with dark clouds visible in Camelford. 15 minutes later at 12:30, heavy rain began to fall. Throughout the afternoon an unprecedented amount of rain fell, estimated at over 1.400 million litres in just 2 hours, nearly 200,000 litres a second. The rainfall quickly made its way into rivers that rose at an alarming rate as they flowed through Boscastle. 9 minutes later a flood watch was issued. 3 hours and 1 minute later at 15:00 the first of many power cuts where caused by lightning, 30 minutes later, the river valency began to flood. 16 minutes later there was a reported rise of 2m in one hour. At 15:53 the fire brigade was mobilised and 7 minutes later access to all roads was closed. 30 minutes later at 16:30 a 3m wall of water flowed through Boscastle at 64kph. The flood reached peak level at 17:00 and cars were swept away and buildings destroyed. The rain was so heavy it was difficult to see. At 17:10 major incident declared and a RAF search and rescue was alerted. This was the largest peace time rescue option in Britain. The storm which caused the flood came about as a result of the remnants of hurricane Alex which had moved across the Atlantic Ocean. The clouds remained stationary over North Cornwall meaning the rain fell quickly and steadily. The small catchment area contributed to the flood as it is about 23km squared and includes the relatively impermeable upland area of Bodmin moors steep sided valleys coverage as they run towards the sea, funnelling water towards Boscastle. After surface run off quickly reaches the rivers it increases the likelihood of

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