Lucas's Critique

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Lucas Critique 1 1. Introduction Motivating Question: Why do we work with dynamic stochastic models in modern macroeconomics at all? Answer: these models can help us illustrate the quantitative implications of economic theories, thereby empirically testing the theories use dynamic models as laboratory to replicate and simulate interactions between aggregate variables for performing counterfactual exercises in order to assess causal links Prof. Monika Merz, Ph.D. Dynamic Macroeconomics Lucas Critique 2 Lucas’ Critique 1976: A meaningful policy analysis and economic forcasts require an analytical framework with individuals who i. behave optimally; assume: ii. act in an uncertain environment; they form expectations about uncertain future events Prior to Lucas’ Critique most macroeconomic models were so-called large-scale macroeconometric models Prof. Monika Merz, Ph.D. Dynamic Macroeconomics Lucas Critique 3 Typical characteristics ad hoc behavioral equations aiming at adequately depicting individual behavior pursuing policy analysis or economic forcasting behavioral equations were considered to be stable and independent of policy parameters their size a typical macroeconomic model consisted of lots of ad hoc behavioral equations which were estimated econometrically Prof. Monika Merz, Ph.D. Dynamic Macroeconomics Lucas Critique 4 Prominent representatives : Lucas’ Critique: economic models which ignore individuals’ reactions to changes in policy parameters deliver questionable and typically wrong policy recommendations and forecasts Robert E. Lucas required: “meaningful economic models need to be built on stable characteristics, i.e., on first principles which are invariant to policy changes” Example: Prof. Monika Merz, Ph.D. Dynamic Macroeconomics Lucas
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