Decrease in Production of Olive Oil

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The production of olive oil in Spain has been stinted due a drought, “reduc[ing] total global output by around 20% compared with a year ago.” The drought caused a decrease in supply of olive oil (fig. 1). This leads to the increase in price of olive oil from P1 to P2, while the quantity supplied and quantity demanded decreases from Q1 to Q2. Over the past three months, this increase has been so rapid that prices have risen by over 50%, and is speculated increase will continue. For Spain, this may be a disadvantage, but other countries see this as an opportunity to shine in the olive oil market. Due to the increasing demand (D1 → D2, fig 2) of olive oil since the past few decades, the world price of olive oil is increasing. Coupled with the decreasing supply, the price is increasing at a rapid rate. Note that the evaluation in the diagram is faulty; while the price increases to P2, the resulting equilibrium price after the shift in demand and supply curve, there is no indication that demand will go back to Qe. In theory, demand range from anywhere above Qc. As the price increases, Californian olives, which are more expensive, are now considered valid candidates to join in the olive oil market. The only problem with Californians olives is that the imported European olive oil is being produced with a subsidy from the EU. Not only does this make Californian olives less of a competition, but according to fig 3, European producers are earning more (C x Qsub, fig 3) than they would if they did not have the subsidy (Pe x Qe). However, EU producers are looking to cut subsidies on the production of olive oil, which would increase the price to Pe and decrease the quantity supplied and quantity demanded to Qe. These measures are all in favor of non-European olive producers, since the competitiveness is improved as the price of European olive oil approaches the world

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