Citic Tower Ii

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CITIC TOWER II: The Real Option Summary The Citic Pacific Limited has been given the opportunity to purchase a plot of land with the ability to build the Citic Tower II. Discrete financial analysis for the project to build a new tower has a negative NPV. Larry Yung felt that the DCF model did not allow enough flexibility to decision of purchasing the land. Larry felt if he could get an option from the land owner to purchase the land in a years’ time (European call), the NPV of the real option would have a better chance of being positive. Analysis Volatility: The volatility for the project was determined by calculating the standard deviation of the sum of price and rental quarterly growth. The growth rate is considered to be in the continuous domain. The quarterly volatility of 15.28 percent (Exhibit 1) was multiplied by (Square root (4)) to calculate the yearly volatility of 30.57 percent. Risk Free Rate: The yields (risk free rates) from 1998 to 2001 for 3 months were considered and rate of 1.89 % was considered appropriate for the analysis. Black Scholes Model: The option to purchase the land in a year was valued via Black Scholes Model (Exhibit 2). The capital expenditure to build Citic Tower II stated at $1.6 billion was used as strike price. The DCF of the project stated as $1.54 billion was considered the stock price. Volatility and risk free rate are the same as stated above. It was noted that the Price of the Call option to defer the decision by one year was $174,235,088.48. Binomial Analysis: The option to purchase the land in a year was valued using binomial lattices technique (Exhibit 2). The cost quoted to build Citic Tower II was stated at $1.6 billion which is used as the strike price. The DCF of the project based on Citic starting to build the tower today is $1.54 billion or the current price. Volatility and risk free rate

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