Paul Geary 10109099 Project A: Okun’s Law United States 4th March 2011 Above we see the Business Cycle for the United States displaying both the Unemployment rates and the Real Growth GDP in percentage change over the last 30 years. There are clear indicators that the US economy has had clear stages of economic over-cooling and over-heating during the last 30 years. Between 1981-1985 the US economy expanded greatly except for a 4% drop in 1983. This rapid expansion was clearly unsustainable, as we see with the gradual contraction in the size of the economy from 1986 to1992 where GDP was barely 1% and unemployment reached 7%. We see this again from 2004 all the way to 2010 with unemployment increasing to 10%.
Refer to situation anaylsis 2. Internal Marketing Audit Operating Results Total group sales have reduced by £225.9m to £923.2m, plus a 12.1 decline in sales. “An adverse movement in the Hong Kong dollar, offset by favourable movements in the Euro and Singapore dollar, impacted sales by £0.4m and operating profit by £nil.”(HMVgroup, 2012). Sales lessened from £1,102.2m to £873.1m and the costs afore tax and special items were £16.2m, which is down from a profit of £16.2m in the previous period. Furthermore, significant charges of withdrawn operation of £33.5m were sustained in the year.
The policy of reducing debt made MC leave the company with just $36 million cash which was well under the number of 1990 ($283 million cash ). MC’s stock prices fell more than two-thirds from $33.38 in 1989 to $10.50 in 1990, resulting in a drop of $2 billion in market capitalization; even if in 1991 it went up to $16.50. Another consequence was an important decrease of Times interest earned from 2.6 in 1989 to 1.4 in 1990 and 1.5 in 1991 which triggered a depreciation of bond rating from A3 in 1989 to Baa3 in 1991 quite close to junk bonds. For the future this is a strong signal of the MC financial crisis situation. Most liquidity and solvency indicators show that the group would have not been unable to cover its current obligations/liabilities and was close to bankruptcy.
During that time the Company experienced troubles and the revenue has fallen while debt taken on to finance mergers and infrastructure investment remained the same. Ultimately, the market value of the Company’s common stock plunged from about $125 billion in 2000 to less than $150 million as of July 1st 2002. Overall, more than $9 billion in false or unsupported accounting entries were made in WorldCom’s financial systems in order to achieve desired reported financial results. (WorldCom stock price) Quantification of Findings We have audited the accompanying balance sheets of WorldCom Corporation as of December 31, 1999 and December 31, 2000, and the related statements of income, cash flow, and stockholders’ equity for the period ended December 31, 1999 and December 31, 2000. During our review of the income statement we noticed that the Corporation mistakenly releases accruals and capitalize expenses that should be charged on expenses.
Total losses for the four days: $30 billion, 10 times federal budget and more than the U.S. had spent in World War I ($32B estimated). The crash wiped out 40 percent of the paper value of common stock. Although this was a cataclysmic blow, most scholars do not believe that the stock market crash, alone, was sufficient to have caused the Great Depression. And the next possible cause is bank failure.In 1929, there were 25,568 banks in the United States; by 1933, there were only 14,771. Personal and corporate savings dropped from $15.3 billion in 1929 to $2.3 billion in 1933.
decline of bad loans, increased market values of good loans relative to amount of deposits. Increasingly higher interest rate risk – meaning that there is about 30% of excess interest sensitive assets compared to interest sensitive liabilities. SSB’s Major Strengths and Weaknesses in Terms of Profitability at Year-End 1993 According to the calculated ratios in Table-1, SSB had the following strengths and weaknesses. Strengths: Slightly increasing net interest margin (NIM): This indicates favorable control and management of interest income and interest expenses, in relation to SSB’s total assets. Increased earnings spread: This indicates that SSB has established effective borrowing and lending processes.
Sales grew 33% in 06 and 22% in 07. There is a gap in the growth coming from sales where income is lost due to the increase in raw material prices and forecasted demand which led to an inventory cut. 4. Which is the EBITDA margin? | 05 | 06 | 07 | EBITDA Margin | 8.6% | 15.6% | 9.7% | 5.
Also, from the second half of 2007 to the end of 2008, China's top stock indices diminished speedily and decreased to less than half their prices. There were accelerated reductions in economic growth and absolute decreases in exports. In early 2009, Chinese year-on-year economic growth dropped to 6.1 percent, much lower than the growth rates the country had averaged for most of the last ten years. Also, rising unemployment posed a separate concern for Beijing. (Council on Foreign Relations, 2009) In October 2008, China's yearly industrial output growth lessened to 8.2 percent, the lowest since October 2001, because manufacturers carried out
It includes consumer debt and mortgage loans.” (Canocchi 2014) The UK and the US have similar patterns of consumer spending and borrowing and subsequently similar patterns of household indebtedness. In the UK, the average household debt has more than “quadrupled since 1990, despite the interest rates being at historic lows”. (Canocchi 2014) In 1990, total household debt in the UK stood at £347billion, but it rocketed by 314 per cent to £1,437billion in 2013. (Canocchi 2014) The US has similar shocking statistics in relation to their much larger population. In the April-June quarter 2014 the total household indebtedness in the US (including mortgages, student loans, car loans, credit cards and home-equity lines) was estimated at $11.63 trillion dollars according to The Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Further it increased both sales and net income by 54% and 28% vs. 1993, but the company has a problem of a liquidity and a shortage of cash. One of the biggest indicators of this problem is almost double decrease in quick ratio in 2 years (Exhibit 1). This means that the company has a decrement of current assets (not considering inventory) comparing to current liabilities by 0.66. Another factor which helps us understand the reason for shortage is Cash Cycle, which consists of Average Collection days and Average Inventory days subtracted by Average Payment days. This indicator is increasing dramatically by almost 11 days in two years, because of increase of Collection and Inventory days by 16 and minor increase of Payables days by 5 (Exhibit 2 and 3).