Airbus A3Xx Case

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HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL 9-201-028 REV: APRIL 26, 2004 BENJAMIN ESTY Airbus A3XX: Developing the World's Largest Commercial Jet (A) Aviation is a great business to be in, provided you have limitless money at your disposal, limitless confidence in your ability to get everything right the first time, and limitless resolve and iron nerve,' EADS (Airbus) is betting the company on this aircraft. 2 On June 23, 2000, Airbus Industrie's Supervisory Board approved an Authorization to Offer (ATO) the A3XX, a proposed super jumbo jet that would seat from 550 to 990 passengers, have a list price of $216 million, and cost $13 billion to develop. Before the Board would commit to industrial launch, the point at which significant expenditures would begin, it hoped to secure orders for 50 jets from as many as five major airlines. While Airbus had been courting potential customers for many years-in fact, development had been underway since 1990-the ATO gave the sales force permission to begin taking firm orders for the plane with delivery starting in 2006. Airbus management announced the first orders for the A3XX at the bi-annual Air Show in Famborough, England, in July 2000. Noel Forgeard, Airbus' CEO, reported that Air France, Emirates Airlines, and International Lease Finance Corporation had agreed to order ten, seven, and five jets, respectively, and that there were another 30 orders lined up.' The initial orders were a positive, though not unexpected, sign. The real question, however, was whether there was sufficient long-term demand to justify industrial launch. Management believed they would break even on an undiscounted cash flow basis with sales of 250 planes, and could sell as many as 750 over the next 20 years! At the time, Airbus was predicting that there would be demand for more than 1,500 super jumbos over the next 20 years that would generate sales in

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