A Statistical Analysis of Time Series Model to Predict the Stock Price of the Walt Disney Company

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A Statistical Analysis of Time Series Model to Predict the Stock Price of The Walt Disney Company Linxiong Ke DS504 Wednesday Spring 2014
 THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY !1 A Statistical Analysis of Time Series Model to Predict the Stock Price of The Walt Disney Company I. Introduction This report analyses the relationships between price and earnings per share (eps), book value per share (bvps), cash flow per share (cfps), and income taxes. The analysis aims to predict the stock price of The Walt Disney Company (DIS) in the future. The report will provide a possible method to measure investment risk for potential investors. II. Methodology This report uses time series data from 2004 to 2014, with 120 data sets. The report contains Graphical Techniques, Descriptive Statistics, Correlation, and Regression to accomplish the prediction of the future stock price of The Walt Disney Company. ! EQN.1 is the prediction of correlation of the dependent variable (stock price), and all the other independent variables, including earrings per share (eps), book value per share (bvps), cash flow per share (cfps), and income taxes. EQN.2 is the population regression line. EQN.3 is the sample regression line. Earning per share, or EPS, is calculated by total equity available to common divided by the numbers of share outstanding, and this indicator is mostly considered as the most important factor for determining the stock price. A higher EPS will increase the stock price in most of the cases . THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY !2 Book value per share, or BVPS, is calculated by total stock holder equity subtract preferred equity, then divided by total outstanding share, is a measure in a firm to determine the level of safety associated with each individual share after all debts are paid. Cash flow per share, or CFPS, is calculated by operating cash flow subtract preferred dividends divided by

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