Wtvx Study Case

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WTVX, Channel 6, is located in Eugene, Oregon, home of the University of Oregon’s football team. Although there were other television stations in Eugene, WTVX was the only station that had a weatherperson who was a member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), Joe Hummel. In addition to being a member of AMS, Joe was also the most popular person on any of the local news programs. One of Joe’s most popular features of the weather report was to invite questions during the actual broadcast. Questions would be phoned in, and they were answered on the spot by Joe. Joe received one particularly phone call from high school senior asking: “what the chances were of getting 15 days of rain in the next month (30 days)?” Joe’s answer was wrong: he said a 35% of change. After been lectured by various mathematicians, professors, and scientist about his miscalculation, Joe needs to redeem his mistake by recalculating the probability, and give the correct results in the future weather forecast. After analyzing the question, the probability asked can be answer using the following method: the binomial theorem. The probability of obtaining specific outcomes in a Bernoulli process is described by the binomial probability distribution. In order to be a Bernoulli process, an experiment must have the following characteristics: 1. Each trial in a Bernoulli process has only two possible outcomes. In our case: rain or sunshine 2. The probability stays the same from one trial to the next. In our case: Joe’s forecast for the month was a 70% of rain every day. 3. The trials are statistically independent. In our case: and that what happens on one day (rain or shine) was not in any way dependent on what happened the day before. 4. The number of trials is a positive integer. In our case: 30 trials (30 days). The binomial distribution is used to find the

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