With Reference to Extract One, Assess the Likely Effect of a Fall in the Sterling Exchange Rate on the Uk’s Deficit in the Trade of Goods and Services. (12 Marks)

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With reference to extract one, assess the likely effect of a fall in the sterling exchange rate on the UK’s deficit in the trade of goods and services. (12 marks) A fall in the exchange rate of 25% means the pound becomes weaker, this means imports are more expensive, and exports are cheaper. As a result of this, this may mean a large increase in demand for exports and a considerable decrease in demand for imports, therefore decreasing the deficit of the balance of payments in the UK as predicted. However, if the goods we are importing and exporting are inelastic, meaning they have a less than proportional response to price, an increase in the price of imports, and a decrease in the price of exports may not have a great effect on the trade of goods and services and so therefore not improve on the deficit the UK holds. As stated in extract 1, it tells us that the goods we import are not made in the UK and so makes it impossible to replace the imports, therefore meaning that we still have to import goods, despite the high prices due to the low exchange rate of sterling. This is partnered with the fact that some suppliers (shown in extract 1) have agreed long term supply contract with cheaper overseas suppliers before the depreciation of the sterling and so they are now paying high prices. This may mean that these suppliers may have to increase the prices of these goods, therefore leading to cost push inflation due to trying to maintain a decent profit margin in the hope the demand for the good does not drop dramatically. However, it is stated that there still may be a large price differential with countries such as China and India, even after sterling's depreciation. On the other hand however, as stated in extract 1, line 8, volume of good imported has also increased by 16% and inflation has continued well above target. This may be due to people relying on
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