To What Extent Are Mid-Term Elections Merely a Referendum on the Performance of the President?

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To what extent are mid-term elections merely a referendum on the performance of the president? Jan 2011 Q7 (45 marks) Mid-term elections are the elections for the whole of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate that occur midway through the president’s 4-year term of office. I will be judging to what extent midterms can be seen merely as a referendum on the President’s performance. Mid-term elections can be seen merely as a referendum on the performance of the President because the President’s party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in all but three mid-term elections in the last 100 years. For example the three mid-terms where this happened were 1934, when Roosevelt won 9 more seats, 1998, when Clinton won 5 more seats and 2002, when George W. Bush won 8 more seats. This helps to show that the President’s performance is judged massively and it’s almost certain that if the electorate feel that the President’s performance has been unsatisfactory then the President’s party will do poorly in the midterms. This really emphasis’s the fact that midterms act as almost a voice for the electorate, which can let the President know exactly what they think about what type of job he or she is doing so far, by simply voting for the other party in the election. Therefore commentators have argued that midterms are a referendum on the performance of the president because the President almost always seems to lose seats in the House of Representatives, which can act as almost a ‘wake up call’ for the President, letting him or her know that they need to improve the job their doing in office so far. However other commentators have argued that mid-term elections are not merely a referendum on the performance of the President because the turnout is almost always low. What this means is that not a huge amount of the electorate actually vote. For
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