The Predictability of Stock Return

3350 Words14 Pages
Assignment Topic: The predictability of stock market returns is one of the most controversial and intensely debated issues in empirical finance. Some authors claim that we can use a variety of financial and macroeconomic variables to predict stock market returns while others argue that predicting stock returns is an elusive goal. Hence, the literature has documented contradictory findings with respect to different markets and periods while there are also various methods that have been applied yielding different results. To name a few predictive variables, these include the dividend-to-price ratio and the dividend yield, the book-to-market ratio, the earnings-to-price ratio, the short term interest rate and more recently, the consumption-to-wealth ratio. Provide an overview of the existing academic literature on this topic and analyse examples of both sides. 1. Introduction Predictability of stock market return or equity premium is still one of the most disputable issues in empirical finance. Some articles have proved that stock market return can be predictable by different financial variables during different periods while some other articles strongly doubt about the predictive ability of these financial variables. This essay will summarize the previous literatures and make an outline of these opinions. Then, in the main parts of the essay, we will discuss the predictability and unpredictability of stock market return, respectively. In section 3, present-value model and P/D model are used to explain whether the stock return can be predicted. And in section 4, due to the discrepancy of in-sample and out-of-sample performance, the dividend yield and the dividend price ratio are proved not to be able to forecast excess return. Additionally, in section 5 we provide another approach to forecasting returns, using earnings yield and dividend yield as

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