The Future Of Pakistan Essay

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The Future of Pakistan THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN December 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE………………………………………………………………………….. 1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………….3 PAKISTAN TO 2011………………………………………………………………. 5 FOUR CLUSTERS I: Demography, Education, Class, and Economics………………………….. 16 II: Pakistan’s Identity……………………………………………………….. 23 III: State Coherence………………………………………………………… 27 IV: External and Global Factors…………………………………………...... 34 SCENARIOS AND OUTCOMES…………………………………………………. 43 CONCLUSIONS…………………………………………………………………… 50 SIX WARNING SIGNS……………………………………………………………. 51 POLICY: BETWEEN HOPE AND DESPAIR……………………………………. 52 APPENDIX……………………………………………………………………….... 56 4 ABBREVIATIONS CBMs Confidence-building measures CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund ISI Inter-Services Intelligence JeI Jamaat-e-Islami JUI-F Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) KP Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba MQM Muttahida Pauma Movement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NFC National Finance Commission NGOs Non-governmental organizations NIC National Intelligence Council NSC National Security Council NWFP North-West Frontier Province PML Pakistan Muslim League (various factions) PPP Pakistan People’s Party U.N. United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme INTRODUCTION Pakistan’s future is important to its neighbors and to states near and far for at least six reasons: 1 It is a nuclear weapons state with a very bad record of proliferation. Pakistan has, as a matter of state policy, actively supported jihadist and militants in its neighbors and has either turned a blind eye or professes incapacity when it comes to opposing militants active in Europe and even in friendly China.

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