1216 Words5 Pages

Lesson 05 Forecasting & Smoothing Methods Solutions Solved Problem #1: see text book Solved Problem #2: see textbook (manual example using seasonal relatives) Solved Problem #3: see textbook Solved Problem #4: see textbook (you do not have to do this problem manually, use the template and notice how the template answers differ slightly from the seasonal relatives provided in the manual example) To avoid manually entering the data into the templates it can be copied and pasted from Data Sets on the Lesson Page. Use “copy, paste special, values” to transfer the data to the template. #1: A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below. Blueberry Muffins 30 34 32 34 35 30 34 36 29 31 35 31 37 34 33 Cinnamon*…show more content…*

Cupcakes 45 26 27 23 22 48 29 20 14 18 47 26 27 24 22 Determine the Naïve forecast for day 16. Blueberry Muffins 33 Cinnamon buns 33 Day 16 b. Cupcakes 22 What does the use of sales data rather than demand data imply? Sales data does not take into account the demand which may have been greater than the actual sales. If the demand was actually greater than sales and the bakery could have met that demand, using sales would cause them to under forecast their full business potential. 1 #2: National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales ($000) for a seven-month period were as follows: Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug a. Plot the monthly data. Historical Data Sales 19 18 15 20 18 22 20 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 Period Sales 5 6 7*…show more content…*

Ft = 80 + 15t where F t = annual sales (000 bottles ) t = 0 corresponds to 1990 a. Indicate how much the sales are increasing or decreasing? Sales are increasing by 15,000 bottles per year b. Predict sales for the year 2006 using the equation? This is a manual problem! t = 16 therefore the forecast for the year 2006 = 80 + 16*15 = 320 thousand bottles #4: Freight car loadings over a 12-year period at a busy port are as follows: The units are in thousands of tons. Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 a. Loadings 220 245 280 275 300 310 350 360 400 380 420 450 460 475 500 510 525 541 Determine the linear trend equation for the freight car loadings. Forecast = 208.48 + 19 * year b. What is the slope? Interpret it. Slope = 19 thousand pounds Interpretation: the freight loadings are increasing 19 thousand pounds per year 3 c. Use the trend equation to predict the freight loadings for years 20 and 21. Year 20 21 Loadings 588.40 607.40

Cupcakes 45 26 27 23 22 48 29 20 14 18 47 26 27 24 22 Determine the Naïve forecast for day 16. Blueberry Muffins 33 Cinnamon buns 33 Day 16 b. Cupcakes 22 What does the use of sales data rather than demand data imply? Sales data does not take into account the demand which may have been greater than the actual sales. If the demand was actually greater than sales and the bakery could have met that demand, using sales would cause them to under forecast their full business potential. 1 #2: National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales ($000) for a seven-month period were as follows: Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug a. Plot the monthly data. Historical Data Sales 19 18 15 20 18 22 20 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 Period Sales 5 6 7

Ft = 80 + 15t where F t = annual sales (000 bottles ) t = 0 corresponds to 1990 a. Indicate how much the sales are increasing or decreasing? Sales are increasing by 15,000 bottles per year b. Predict sales for the year 2006 using the equation? This is a manual problem! t = 16 therefore the forecast for the year 2006 = 80 + 16*15 = 320 thousand bottles #4: Freight car loadings over a 12-year period at a busy port are as follows: The units are in thousands of tons. Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 a. Loadings 220 245 280 275 300 310 350 360 400 380 420 450 460 475 500 510 525 541 Determine the linear trend equation for the freight car loadings. Forecast = 208.48 + 19 * year b. What is the slope? Interpret it. Slope = 19 thousand pounds Interpretation: the freight loadings are increasing 19 thousand pounds per year 3 c. Use the trend equation to predict the freight loadings for years 20 and 21. Year 20 21 Loadings 588.40 607.40

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