Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run

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Chapter 15 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run ( Answers to Textbook Problems 1. Relative PPP predicts that inflation differentials are matched by changes in the exchange rate. Under relative PPP, the franc/ruble exchange rate would fall by 95 percent with inflation rates of 100 percent in Russia and 5 percent in Switzerland. 2. A real currency appreciation may result from an increase in the demand for nontraded goods relative to tradables which would cause an appreciation of the exchange rate since the increase in the demand for nontradables raises their price, raising the domestic price level and causing the currency to appreciate. In this case exporters are indeed hurt, as one can see by adapting the analysis in Chapter 3. Real currency appreciation may occur for different reasons, however, with different implications for exporters’ incomes. A shift in foreign demand in favor of domestic exports will both appreciate the domestic currency in real terms and benefit exporters. Similarly, productivity growth in exports is likely to benefit exporters while causing a real currency appreciation. If we consider a ceterus paribus increase in the real exchange rate, this is typically bad for exporters as their exports are now more expensive to foreigners which may reduce foreign export demand. In general, though, we need to know why the real exchange rate changed to interpret the impact of the change. 3. (a) A tilt of spending towards nontraded products causes the real exchange rate to appreciate as the price of nontraded goods relative to traded goods rises (the real exchange rate can be expressed as the price of tradables to the price of nontradables). (b) A shift in foreign demand towards domestic exports causes an excess demand for the domestic country’s goods which causes the relative price of these goods to rise; that is, it
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