Piracy Essay

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MARITIME PIRACY IN MALACCA STRAIT AND SOUTH CHINA SEA: TESTING THE DETERRENCE AND REACTANCE MODELS BO JIANG Department of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania (August 2013 to May 2014) Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland (June 2014 - ) KEYWORDS: Southeast Asia, maritime piracy, deterrence, reactance, series hazard model, logistic model ABSTRACT: In this article, I used series hazard modeling and multivariate logistic models to test the relative strengths of deterrence and reactance models for the risk of piracy attacks under a military intervention and several major events. I found significant evidence for the conclusion that the rate of piracy attacks reduced significantly when direct controls are implemented to reduce the environmental opportunities of crime, and when certainty effect becomes stronger. The only exception is when pirates are highly motivated. Also, my results support the reactance perspective when the odds of successful attacks significantly increase after anti-piracy military intervention was introduced. No. of words: 7354 No. of figures: 2 No. of tables: 5 1 INTRODUCTION Of the many piracy prone areas in the world, the two prominent piracy hotspots in Asia are the South China Sea and the Malacca Straits which are contiguous to each another. The South China Sea is bounded on the north by China, on the south by Indonesia, on the east by the Philippine islands, and on the west by the Malay Peninsula and Vietnam. It encompasses an area of around 3.5 million square kilometers, and contains more than 230 scattered islets, reefs, and shoals. It is home to the world’s most perplexing problems of jurisdiction and maritime management. Linking the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea, Malacca Strait is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Its strategic importance lies in it being the shortest trade route

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