Petroquímica Bahía Blanca

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Petroquímica Bahía Blanca (PBB) Analysis and Valuation Pedro Barbosa LL.M Duisenberg School of Finance PBB Analysis and Valuation Executive Summary Assessing the bid price for a project in an emerging market is much more tricky and complex than assessing a similar project in a developed market. Dow Chemical has a serious competitor in the privatization of PBB and should therefore bid for its fair value or higher. At the end of our analysis, we find the fair value of PBB to be around 340 million US dollars. Summary of Facts The privatization of Petroquímica Bahía Blanca (PBB) is a unique opportunity for the Dow Chemical Company to become the leading polyethylene player in Latin America However, the company faces competition for the bid from the joint venture of Copesul/Perez Compac Statement of Problem In this analysis we will focus on the following problems: Measuring country-specific risks and incorporating them in the cash flow projections Calculating an appropriate discount rate for the project Assessing if there is a competing bid for PBB PBB Analysis and Valuation Analysis – Competing Bid First of all, as we have mentioned above, we will address if there is a competing bid. While this may seem irrelevant or trivial at first glance, it is important to assess whether Copesul/Perez Compac bid for PBB is something that Dow should worry about. If they are serious about acquiring the company Dow has to bid for more than the value it has assessed to be fair. If it were not case than Dow would have more leeway to try to negotiate a discount or bid at fair value. Exhibit 2 shows financial data from Copesul. We can see that it is a rapidly growing company with little debt. Furthermore, Perez Compac is a conglomerate which has already been granted a considerable amount of stakes in privatized companies (we can assume consequently that it exerts

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