Operations Management Bus-350 Chapter 3

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CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Operations Management 2 Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity CHAPTER OUTLINE Introduction, 74 Features Common to All Forecasts, 75 Elements of a Good Forecast, 76 Forecasting and the Supply Chain 76 Steps in the Forecasting Process, 77 Forecast Accuracy, 77 Summarizing Forecast Accuracy, 78 Techniques for Trend, 89 Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing, 92 Techniques for Seasonality, 93 Techniques for Cycles, 98 3 Forecasting 3 Forecasting 4 Product and Service Design 5 Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services 6 Process Selection and Facility Layout 7 Work Design and Measurement 8 Location Planning and Analysis 9 Management of Quality 10 Quality Control 11 Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling 12 MRP and ERP 13 Inventory Management 14 JIT and Lean Operations 15 Supply Chain Management 16 Scheduling 17 Project Management 18 Management of Waiting Lines 19 Linear Programming Associative Forecasting Techniques, 98 Simple Linear Regression, 98 Comments on the Use of Linear Regression Analysis, 102 Nonlinear and Multiple Regression Analysis, 103 Approaches to Forecasting, 80 Qualitative Forecasts 80 Executive Opinions, 80 Salesforce Opinions, 81 Consumer Surveys, 81 Other Approaches, 81 Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data, 82 Naive Methods, 82 Techniques for Averaging, 83 Other Forecasting Methods, 89 Monitoring the Forecast, 103 Choosing a Forecasting Technique, 107 Using Forecast Information, 109 Computer Software in Forecasting, 109 Operations Strategy, 109 Cases: M&L Manufacturing, 130 Highline Financial Services, Ltd., 130 LEARNING OBJECTIVES After completing this chapter you should be able to: 1 2 3 List the elements of a good forecast. Outline the steps in the forecasting process. Evaluate at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each.

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