Gdp Factors Essay

3698 WordsApr 10, 201315 Pages
HOW CAN THE ECONOMIC GROWTH BE AFFECTED? STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR ROMANIA MIRELA CRISTEA* , RALUCA DRĂCEA** and NICU MARCU*** *University of Craiova, E-Mail: mirela.cristea@feaa.ucv.ro ** University of Craiova, E-Mail: raludracea@yahoo.com *** University of Craiova, E-Mail: marcu.nicu@yahoo.com Received October, 1st, 2010 This paper investigates the direction of causality between economic growth and credit market development in Romania for the period 2001–2009 using quaterly data and applying the statistical method under SPSS program. The results provide the evidence in support of the fact that the credit market development is correlated with economic growth, inflation rate and exchange rate. We used the linear regression method and we analysed both the correlation between dependent variable and independent variables, and obtaining necessary coefficients for determining the regression equation. The conclusion is that, in Romania, on the base of the data for the period analysed, a short-run increase of bank lending with 1 mil. RON induces a relative decrease of economic growth with 3.96*10-5%, an increase of inflation rate per 1% induces a decrease of economic growth with 0.32%, and an increase of exchange rate per 1 determines a decrease with 4.9% of economic growth. Key words: credit market, economic growth, linear regression method. INTRODUCTION Banking sector influences to a great extent the economic activity, being a strong correlation between functioning of financial-banking sector and long-term economic development, its stability being extremely important for any economy. On the last years, in all contries, it was given a great importance to the problems of financialbanking situation, as financial sector and, especially the banking one, were and still are very vulnerable to systematic crises. Because of weak transparency and banks refuse to give

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