FORECASTING CHANGE & DEVELOPING FUTURES

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FORECASTING CHANGE & DEVELOPING FUTURES AN INTRODUCTION & OVERVIEW by Earl C. Joseph, Walden University ABSTRACT There are many approaches (methods) for gaining a deeper understanding about emerging change and where such change could possibly take us into the future. This session will cover some of the most used techniques for developing scholarly discourse about future impacts and consequences of change. It is designed to be useful for fulfilling the KAM and dissertation requirement to discuss change within professions and for social change and the future called for in KAM 1. Some of the techniques to be covered are trend forecasting, Delphi analysis, chaos driven futures, societal change forecasting, strategic forecasting, business intelligence, the SWOTS and SEPTS techniques, and more. INTRODUCTION In dealing with change of anything as well as in its forecasting, we’re most often interested in: • how change emerges, evolves, and/or dissipates over a period of time, • reasons for change, • what is impacted as a result of change, and • the consequences of change • how something is altered. CHANGE: SOME PROPOSITIONS AND CHARACTERISTICS Why forecast? To discover the results of change. Change and its forecasting is concerned with five basic categories: 1- Description of change: + its parameters + its characteristics + type of change + area or focus of change + its trend and trend path + shape of change + its magnitude + rate of change + direction of change + cause and effect + issues + when something could occur + what new is introduced + what rules are changed + turning points -- when evolving change changes direction 2- Reasons for change: + precursors or trend path + change triggers -- root cause, breakthroughs, change from outside of system, ... + forces-of-change + change drivers -- Advances in knowledge, technology,

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