Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction

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Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Sustained growth reduces poverty. The economic literature is firm on this point. Numerous cross-country studies have concluded that the main determinant of poverty reduction i s the pace of economic growth. Kraay (2004) found that approximately ―half of the variation in short-run changes in poverty can be explained by growth in average incomes. In the medium to long run, between 66 and 90 percent of the variation in changes in poverty can be accounted for by the growth in average incomes.‖ A report from the Operationalizing Pro-Poor Growth Research Program (AFD and others, 2005) revealed that in countries that experienced economic growth between 1990 and 2003 (11 of 14 studied), a 1 percent increase in GDP per capita reduced poverty (as measured by the annual change in poverty headcount) by 1.7 percent. For some countries, such as Vietnam, the reduction was spectacular—a halving of the poverty rate from 58 percent to 29 percent (or almost 8 percent a year). Poverty declined by rates of between 3 and 6 percent per year in El Salvador, Ghana, India, Tunisia, and Uganda (figure 3.2). Figure 3.2 Economic growth and poverty reduction in selected countries, 1990–2003 Source: AFD and others, 2005. Consistent with the positive relationship between growth and poverty reduction, it has also been found that incomes of the poor appear to rise proportionately with average incomes (Dollar and Kraay, 2002). Plotting per capita incomes of the poor against average per capita income for 137 countries, Dollar and Kraay found a strong, positive linear relationship between the two variables (with a slope of 1.07) (figure 3.3, top graph). Moreover, plotting the annual average growth in incomes of the poor against average annual growth in average incomes for 92 countries also yielded a strong positive, linear relationship between the variables,

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