Discuss Whether a Devaluation Causes Inflation

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devaluation leads to a decline in the value of a currency making exports more competitive and imports more expensive. Inflation occurs when there is an increase in the general price level. Generally, a devaluation is likely to contribute to inflationary pressures because of higher import prices and rising demand for exports. However, the overall impact depends on the state of the economy and other factors affecting inflation. In theory, a devaluation could cause inflation for 3 reasons. Firstly, there is likely to be an increase in AD. (AD = C+I+G+X-M), if exports are cheaper there will be more exports sold and the quantity of imports will fall. If the economy is close to full capacity then higher AD will cause inflation. However, increased AD may not cause inflation, it depends on various factors: If the economy is in recession and there is spare capacity a rise in AD will not cause inflation. If other components of AD are not increasing (e.g. consumer spending is low) then there is unlikely to be demand pull inflation. (X-M is not the biggest component of AD) Also if exports are cheaper then the effect on AD depends upon the elasticity of demand. If demand is inelastic there will only be a small increase in Quantity and there could be a fall in the value of exports (Marshall Lerner condition states devaluation only increases AD if PEDx + PEDm >1) Secondly, if there is a devaluation then there will be an increase in the price of imported goods. Imports are quite a significant part of the RPI, therefore there will be cost push inflation. However, it is possible that retailers may not pass the price increases onto consumers but have lower profit margins. Thirdly, if there is a devaluation exports become more competitive (cheaper to foreign buyers) without firms having to make much effort, therefore there is less incentive for them to cut costs and

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