Discuss the Role of Coincidence and Probability Judgement in Anomalous Belief (24 Marks)

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Discuss the role of coincidence and probability judgement in anomalous belief. (24 marks) The term coincidence is used to refer to the idea that two completely separate events may be connecting in some way or another. For example you may think about a friend and then it starts to rain, some may assume either rightly or wrongly that one event causes the other. There are two explanations that seek to explain why people may believe in coincidences. One explanation is general cognitive ability which refers to the idea that intelligence might be lower in believers and therefore they are less able to accurately judge whether a paranormal event in fact has a normal explanation. The Gray (1987) study found that believers have significantly lower levels of academic performance thank sceptics. This shows that believers with low levels of academic knowledge are unable to grasp the idea that events may have no link to paranormal ability. However the Evans (1973) study found that the 'New Scientist' readers such as scientists and engineers, 67% of pps regarded ESP either as an 'established fact' or 'a likely possibility'. This shows that a portion of those who are regarded as having a high academic ability they also have a high belief in the paranormal. Also the Wiseman and Watt (2006) study concluded that believers and non-believers only differ in terms of syllogistic reasoning rather than cognitive ability generally. Therefore both studies imply that an individuals cognitive ability doesn't affect their belief in the paranormal which suggests that there must be another factor that explains peoples belief in coincidences. Another explanation is the evolutionary explanation which refers to our causal thinking leading to type 1 and type 2 errors. Type 1 errors refers to when people accept that there is a link between two events and completely ignore the idea of there
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