Derterminants of Inflation in Zambia

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DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN ZAMBIA-ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS: CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1BACKGROND During the last two to three decades, Zambia experienced persistently high inflation.Inflation is one of the intractable problems the Zambian economy has facedfora verylong time. After independence, Zambia instituted a program of national development plans, under the direction of a National Commission for Development Planning: the Transitional Development Plan (1964–66) was followed by the First National Development Plan (1966–71). These two plans, which provided for major investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, were largely implemented and were generally successful. These plans were generally nationalistic oriented with the government moving towards having more state owned resources (CSO 1998). Unfortunately for Zambia, the programs of nationalization were ill-timed. Events that were beyond its’ control soon wrecked the country's well-laid plans for economic and national development. In 1973 a massive increase in the price of oil was followed by a slump in copper prices in 1975, resulting in a diminution of export earnings. In 1973 the price of copper accounted for 95% of all export earnings; this halved in value on the world market in 1975. By 1976 Zambia had a balance-of-payments crisis, and rapidly became massively indebted to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Third National Development Plan (1978–83) had to be abandoned as crisis management replaced long-term planning. By the mid-1980s Zambia was one of the most indebted nations in the world, relative to its gross domestic product (GDP). The IMF was insisting that the Zambian government should introduce programs aimed at stabilizing the economy and restructuring it to reduce dependence on copper. The proposed measures included: the ending of price controls; devaluation of the kwacha (Zambia's
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