Death Row Research Paper

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GETTING OFF DEATH ROW: COMMUTED SENTENCES AND THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF CAPITAL PUNISHMENT* H. NACI MOCAN University of Colorado at Denver and R. KAJ GITTINGS Cornell University Abstract This paper merges a state-level panel data set that includes crime and deterrence measures and state characteristics with information on all death sentences handed out in the United States between 1977 and 1997. Because the exact month and year of each execution and removal from death row can be identified, they are matched with state-level criminal activity in the relevant time frame. Controlling for a variety of state characteristics, the paper investigates the impact of the execution rate, commutation and removal rates, homicide arrest rate, sentencing…show more content…
Naci Mocan, A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City, 90 Am. Econ. Rev. 584 (2000); Steven D. Levitt, Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime, 87 Am. Econ. Rev. 270 (1997); Jeffrey Grogger, Certainty vs. Severity of Punishment, 29 Econ. Inquiry 297 (1991). 2 For example, an increase in murder arrests decreases murders in New York City. Corman & Mocan, supra note 1; Hope Corman & Naci Mocan, Carrots, Sticks and Broken Windows (Working Paper No. 9061, Nat’l Bur. Econ. Res., July 2002). 3 Isaac Ehrlich, The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Question of Life and Death, 65 Am. Econ. Rev. 397 (1975); and Isaac Ehrlich, Capital Punishment and Deterrence: Some Further Thoughts and Additional Evidence, 85 J. Pol. Econ. 741 (1977). 4 Edward E. Leamer, Let’s Take the Con Out of Econometrics, 73 Am. Econ. Rev. 31 (1983); Stephen A. Hoenack & William C. Weiler, A Structural Model of Murder Behavior and the Criminal Justice System, 70 Am. Econ. Rev. 327 (1980); Peter Passell & John B. Taylor, The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Another View, 67 Am. Econ. Rev. 445 (1977); William J. Bowers & Glenn L. Pierce, The Illusion of Deterrence in Isaac Ehrlich’s Research on Capital Punishment, 85 Yale L. J. 187 (1975). 5 Isaac Ehrlich & Zhiqiang Liu, Sensitivity Analyses of the Deterrence Hypothesis: Let’s Keep the Econ in Econometrics, 42 J. Law & Econ. 455 (1999); Isaac Ehrlich & George D. Brower, On the Issue of Causality in the Economic Model of Crime and Law Enforcement: Some Theoretical Considerations and Experimental Evidence, 77 Am. Econ. Rev. 99 (1987); Isaac Ehrlich, The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Reply, 67 Am. Econ. Rev. 452

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