Confidence Interval Memo

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Confidence Interval Memo Research and Evaluation I/RES 341 Dr. Richard Stanley August 10, 2008 Confidence Interval Memo Team B is preparing this memo to determine the reliability of the data we collected. We will use the statistical concept of confidence interval to determine the reliability of our research. The probability that a confidence interval includes the true mean of a data set is called the confidence level and commonly expressed as 90%, 95% or 99%. The confidence level is the area under the curve of a sampling distribution that is normal. The rule of thumb is that the number of observations should be greater than 30 to assume a normal, symmetric population without outliers in the data set. Each of our team’s data sets contains data that is greater than 30 and in some cases is much larger. Given that the literacy populations being researched tend to be skewed, the larger population sizes we used in our research support our confidence interval computations reliability. Confidence interval is a measure of how reliable the data survey is and will likely include unknown population parameters. When the confidence interval is graphed one can determine if there is a wide range of unknown population parameters. If this is the case, then it becomes likely that more data should be collected before coming to a solid conclusion. We will attempt to calculate the confidence interval levels at the percentage rates of 95% and 99%. In order to figure the confidence intervals, we will use our sample mean, standard deviation and the sample size collected from our previous research. From the CIA data set, we computed a 95% and 99% confidence interval factoring in the mean, standard deviation and the population sizes. For a 95% confidence interval, the true range of the data ranges from 89.61 to 95.13 (this represents a plus/minus range of 2.76). For

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