Umuc Haircust Case Study 4

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Data Exercise 1 UMUC November 9, 2013 ECON 201 The relationship between unemployment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is referred to as Okun's law. The relationship was named after Arthur Okun who was the first person to propose the relationship. Okun’s law states that for every 1% increase in unemployment, GDP will be approximately 2% lower than its potential (Knotek, 2007). Figure [ 1 ] Figure 1 reflects the relationship between quarterly changes in unemployment and GDP from 1947 through 2002. The pattern holds true, as one can see a 1% in unemployment corresponds with approximately 2% negative growth. While Okun’s law seems to follow a logical pattern in which GDP is decreased due to reductions in labor, there are many complex interactions underlying the relationship. The larger shift in GDP caused by a smaller shift in unemployment shows is caused by these factors. Some of the factors affecting this relationship include reductions in hours worked by employed people, productivity changes in the labor force, the number of individuals leaving and entering the workforce, and other workplace or labor force influences. What is most revealing about this analysis is that the impact of decrease in GDP seems to be decreasing over time. In Chart 2 the scatter plot shows the output growth and the change in unemployment from 1949 to 2006. The points for 2003 through 2006 all reside far beneath lie the estimated regression line. Across this time period, the relationship between unemployment and GDP growth was nearly zero. This fact contradicts the normal functioning of Okun’s law that would normally display a negative correlation between unemployment and GDP. Some scholars argue that Okun’s law has changed over time and this explains these contradictions. One explanation is that there are simply many transitory exceptions to the “law.” The scatter plot

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