The Future Of Pakistan Essay

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The Future of Pakistan

THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN


December 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE………………………………………………………………………….. 1
INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………….3
PAKISTAN TO 2011………………………………………………………………. 5
FOUR CLUSTERS
I: Demography, Education, Class, and Economics………………………….. 16
II: Pakistan’s Identity……………………………………………………….. 23
III: State Coherence………………………………………………………… 27
IV: External and Global Factors…………………………………………...... 34
SCENARIOS AND OUTCOMES…………………………………………………. 43
CONCLUSIONS…………………………………………………………………… 50
SIX WARNING SIGNS……………………………………………………………. 51
POLICY: BETWEEN HOPE AND DESPAIR……………………………………. 52
APPENDIX……………………………………………………………………….... 56 4
ABBREVIATIONS
CBMs Confidence-building measures
CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies
FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IMF International Monetary Fund
ISI Inter-Services Intelligence
JeI Jamaat-e-Islami
JUI-F Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman)
KP Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba
MQM Muttahida Pauma Movement
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NFC National Finance Commission
NGOs Non-governmental organizations
NIC National Intelligence Council
NSC National Security Council
NWFP North-West Frontier Province
PML Pakistan Muslim League (various factions)
PPP Pakistan People’s Party
U.N. United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme

INTRODUCTION
Pakistan’s future is important to its neighbors and to states near and far for at least six reasons:
  1
It is a nuclear weapons state with a very bad record of proliferation.

Pakistan has, as a matter of state policy, actively supported jihadist and militants in its neighbors and has either turned a blind eye or professes incapacity when it comes to opposing militants active in Europe and even in friendly China.

The identity-based dispute with India continues, and it is likely that new crises between the two...

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