Impact of Mineral Revolution in South Africa

12732 Words51 Pages
Journal of African Economics and Finance ISSN 1986-4582 Issue 4 © EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2012 http://www.eurojournals.com/jaef.htm Budget Deficits, Money Supply and Inflation in Tanzania: A Multivariate Granger Causality Test, 1967-2010 Michael O. A. Ndanshau Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics University of Dar es Salaam – TANZANIA E-mail: moanda90@yahoo.com Tel: +255-22-2410-669 or +255-784 -268-905 Abstract This paper investigates empirically the nexus between budget deficits, money supply and inflation in Tanzania by employing data for the period 1967 – 2010. Pair-wise Granger causality test established a one-way causal effect, running from inflation to budget deficit and the monetary base. These findings were supported by results from the Vector Error correction model (VECM) estimated. It is shown that there exist a significant inflation inertia and causal effect on budget deficit over the short-run. The VECM results showed that shift in monetary policy regime exerted a significant effect on inflation and budget deficits. Innovation of the ratio of budget deficit to money balances as alternatives for the traditional budget deficit to income ratio was found to lack significant effect on the results. Results are very indicative but highlight the importance of containing inflation to check its effect on budget deficits over the short-to long-run periods. The results also suggest that robust econometric results can be obtained by deflating budget deficits by monetary aggregates or income. Keywords: Inflation, fiscal deficits, money supply, Granger causality, vector error correction model. 1. Introduction Attainment of fiscal balance, that is, balanced budget, is one of the policy approach given priority during implementation of economic reforms programmes (ERP) in Tanzania since the mid-1980s. The ERP, which was implemented

More about Impact of Mineral Revolution in South Africa

Open Document