Delphi Technique - Art or Science?

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ART OR SCIENCE? THE POLICY DELPHI AND ITS CONTRIBUTION TO SOCIAL WORK RESEARCH. The Delphi technique was developed by the RAND Corporation to aid military technological forecasting during the cold war. It was named after the ability of the Greek god Apollo Pythios, the master of the Delphi, to predict the future (Hasson et al., 2000; Goodman, 1987). The classic Delphi has been continually modified over the last half century, and some claim that its design and format flexibility allow for the production of rigorously considered information, otherwise difficult to obtain through alternative research methods (West, 2011). The technique is not without its critics. Linstone and Turoff (2005, p3), the seminal writers on the technique, acknowledge that “Delphi in its design and use is more of an art than a science”. Sackman (1974), one of Delphi’s fiercest critics, acerbically comments that “it’s time for the oracle to move out and science to move in” (cited in Linstone and Turoff, 2005, p.559). Against this cautionary backdrop a Policy Delphi study by Devaney, Lazenblatt and Bunting (2011) into the non-accidental child death review process in Northern Ireland will be critically analysed, to evaluate its scientific contribution to modern social work research. Aims and methods of research. Research classically sets out to obtain data on effective strategies by looking at ‘what works under what conditions’ (McLaughlin, 2012; Newman et al.,2005). By looking at what isn’t working, Devaney et al. clarify their study’s purpose of intent. Anecdotal evidence of the case management review process in Northern Ireland not operating as intended led to the commissioning of a study which evaluates that process. Research tends to be incremental, and by consciously building on previous achievements links with that which has gone before (Newman et al., 2005; McLaughlin, 2012). It
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