Crystal Ball Essay

490 Words2 Pages
1 Figure 2.1 Vision Research’s ClearView project workbook This spreadsheet models the problem that Vision Research is trying to solve. Review the Vision Research scenario The Vision Research spreadsheet models a business situation filled with uncertainty. Vision Research has completed preliminary development of a new drug, code-named ClearView, that corrects nearsightedness. This revolutionary new product could be completely developed and tested in time for release next year if the FDA approves the product. Although the drug works well for some patients, the overall success rate is marginal, and Vision Research is uncertain whether the FDA will approve the product. You begin your analysis by defining assumption cells to support this scenario. Chapter 2 | Looking Deeper — Tutorial 2 20 Crystal Ball Getting Started Guide Define assumptions In Crystal Ball, you define an assumption for a value cell by choosing a probability distribution that describes the uncertainty of the data in the cell. To accomplish this, you choose among the distribution types in the Distribution Gallery (see Figure 2.2 on page 21). How do you know which distribution type to choose? This portion of the tutorial will help you understand how to choose a distribution type based on the answer you are looking for. In the following exercises, you select the assumption cells in the Vision Research spreadsheet and choose the probability distributions that most accurately describe the uncertainties of the ClearView project. For more information about choosing distributions, see Appendix D of this Guide and Appendix A of the Crystal Ball User Manual. You need to define or review these assumptions: • Testing Costs assumption: uniform distribution • Marketing Costs assumption: triangular distribution • Patients Cured assumption: binomial distribution • Growth Rate assumption:
Open Document