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Submitted by rkrm8403 on April 13, 2008
Is The U.S. In A Recession?
Try and name an economist or politician who hasn’t had the word recession roll off of their tongue lately. Are we in a recession? Are we headed for a recession? Are we doing anything to prevent or maintain during an economic recession? What will be the consequences?
A recession is defined as a period of less economic activity. Synonyms include decline, deflation, or slump. In our current economy there is a tightening in the credit market and an overall decrease in spending. In a vague and general glance one might say this describes a period of less activity, but it’s so much more in depth than that.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan predicted on 2/26/08 that there was a better than a 50 % chance that the US economy would face a recession. He explains that after then recession in 2001 the economy has again begun to rise at its regular rate. With the economy rising there has been no risk of a recession until recently. One of the many attempts to predict a recession is analyzing the profit margin. This has begun to stabilize out which is usually a precursor to a recession. He argues that while we are headed for so called rainy days the recession has been projected into late 2008. We are just now going through the contraction period.
Greenspan also credits most of this to the housing market. The break in the credit cycle began with the huge surge in sub-prime mortgage originations. That accounted for 20% of home sales in 2005 and 2006. The risk of recession will continue until U.S. housing prices stabilize. The whitehouse.gov published an article predicting a housing free fall and also that all home construction will reduce by 50%. He even proves a strong argument that if the interest rate had not already been lowered the economy would be in a full blown recession. David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor's, said that among his biggest concerns is that...
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